Wages Hold Steady As Jobs Market Remains Strong, CommBank Data Shows

Wages growth in Australia remained stable in early 2026, with Commonwealth Bank internal data showing a 0.7 per cent rise over the three months to February and annual growth holding at 3.1 per cent.

The latest CommBank Wage Insights series, which draws on the bank’s internal salary transaction data, recorded a slight softening in quarterly pace compared with the figures seen in November and December. Annual wages growth has broadly hovered around the 3.1 per cent mark since mid-2025.

The figures come as the Reserve Bank of Australia weighs its next move on interest rates, with a tight but stable labour market and rising energy prices adding complexity to the inflation outlook.

RBA Likely To Hold For Now

CommBank Head of Australian Economics, Belinda Allen, stated that the data suggests wages have not yet responded to the tightening in labour market conditions that occurred through late 2025 and into early 2026.

“The CommBank Wage Insights series slowed in February with the quarterly rate easing to 0.7 per cent. The annual rate was steady at 3.1 per cent,” Allen explained.

“Our data is not yet showing any response to the tightening in labour market conditions through late 2025 and into early 2026. But there are often lags from when the labour market tightens to wages growth picking up.”

Allen added that stable wages growth may provide the RBA with some reassurance in the near term.

“With concerns over inflation given the rise in energy prices, stable wages growth will give the RBA some comfort over coming months,” she noted.

The findings reinforce expectations that the central bank will adopt a wait-and-see approach in the months ahead, monitoring whether the current tightness in the labour market eventually feeds through into faster wage increases.

Western Australia Leads, Tasmania Slows

Across the states and territories, annual wages growth was mixed in February. Western Australia remained the strongest-performing jurisdiction, with wages up 3.8 per cent over the year, although this represented a decline from 4.2 per cent in January.

The Northern Territory recorded the slowest annual growth at 2.7 per cent, though this marked a slight lift from 2.6 per cent the month prior.

New South Wales and Victoria, the two largest state economies, were steady at 3.3 per cent and 3.1 per cent respectively. The ACT held at 3.5 per cent, while Queensland and South Australia both recorded a pick-up in annual growth, reaching 3.4 per cent and 3.5 per cent.

Tasmania was the outlier on the downside. Annual wages growth in the state slowed to 2.8 per cent in February from 3.6 per cent in November, a noticeable easing over a short period.

The state-by-state variation reflects differing economic conditions across the country. Western Australia’s resource sector continues to support wage pressures, while Tasmania’s cooling may point to softer demand in sectors such as tourism and hospitality.

Jobs Growth Steady But Below Post-Pandemic Highs

The CommBank Labour Insights series, which tracks employment trends using the bank’s internal data, pointed to an estimated 21,000 jobs added in February. That figure was steady from January.

Employment growth has now returned to around pre-pandemic rates, sitting well below the pace recorded in 2022 and 2023 when the economy was recovering from COVID-19 disruptions and labour shortages were acute.

While CommBank’s internal data tends to be less volatile than official Australian Bureau of Statistics figures, the bank notes it closely tracks directional trends in the labour market.

The ABS labour force survey has shown unemployment holding steady at 4.1 per cent in both December and January. At that level, CommBank judges the labour market to be tight.

No Clear Shift In Either Direction

Allen described the broader labour market backdrop as tight but stable, with no signs of a shift in trend.

“In the second read for 2026 the CommBank Labour Insights series points to stable employment growth in the Australian economy,” she remarked.

“The ABS labour force survey has shown a steady unemployment rate of 4.1 per cent in December and January. At this rate we judge the labour market is tight,” Allen continued. “Our internal data does not point to a shift in trend in either direction at the moment, reinforcing relatively stable wages growth.”

The picture that emerges from the data is one of an economy in a holding pattern. Wages are growing but not accelerating. Employment is expanding but at a moderate pace. And the labour market, while tight by historical standards, is not showing signs of overheating.

For the RBA, that combination presents a familiar balancing act. Inflation concerns driven by energy prices argue for caution on rate cuts, while the absence of runaway wage growth suggests that the labour market is not adding to inflationary pressures in a way that demands immediate action.

The next official labour force data from the ABS and subsequent CommBank Wage Insights releases will be closely watched for any signs that the current stability is beginning to shift.

Last Updated on March 10, 2026 by Nick Ross