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A new report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) has found that the world is on track to cross the 1.5°C global warming threshold, likely within the next few years.
The report, titled Limiting Overshoot, concludes that even under the most optimistic scenario, global temperatures are projected to peak at 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels, with most other projections pointing higher still.
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However, the UNEP maintains that an “overshoot, peak and decline” pathway could still bring the world back below 1.5°C – provided governments act immediately on emissions reduction, methane abatement and fossil fuel phase-out.
Pacific Forum Puts Climate At Centre Stage
The findings land as Pacific leaders gather in Palau for the 55th Pacific Islands Forum, where regional security, climate resilience and development are expected to dominate discussions.
The UNEP report outlines how any period spent above the 1.5°C threshold poses risks across food security, health, economic stability and ecosystem integrity for Small Island Developing States (SIDS).
It identifies political will, effective policy, inclusive governance and finance as enabling conditions required to reduce peak temperatures and return the world to below 1.5°C.
Every Fraction Of A Degree Counts
Climate advocacy group 350.org has called on governments to treat the findings as a catalyst for action rather than a signal for resignation.
350.org Pacific and Caribbean Program Manager, Fenton Lutunatabua, urged leaders not to accept overshoot as a foregone conclusion.
“We absolutely have to claw back every fraction of a degree possible. Just because overshoot is deemed inevitable, that doesn’t mean we stop fighting to limit it to as short an overshoot as possible,” Lutunatabua warned.
“It is still within our grasp to limit how high temperatures rise and how long they stay above 1.5°C, and every day above 1.5°C is another coastline swallowed, another plantation flooded, another coral reef lost.”
He pointed to Australia’s role in the region as a focal point for scrutiny.
“While our leaders are in Palau, all eyes are on one of the world’s largest fossil fuel exporters, Australia, and how they act on this urgent warning. The climate crisis is here and any delay in mitigation, in phasing out coal, oil and gas, will only make our adaptation pressures harder and more expensive to bear.”
Australia’s Dual Role Under The Spotlight
350.org Pacific Campaigner, Jacynta Fa’amau, directed attention at what she described as a contradiction in Australia’s position at the Forum.
“We are at this point, not by accident, but because of the actions of the fossil fuel industry and the governments that enable them,” Fa’amau contended.
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“Australia sits in the Pacific Forum Leaders Meeting this week with the mantle of COP31 President of Negotiations, but also the shame of being one of the world’s largest fossil fuel exporters.”
Fa’amau stressed that the prospect of breaching 1.5°C in the coming years demands a central place in Australia’s climate strategy.
“There is no road back to 1.5°C that includes coal, oil and gas expansion and every year of high emissions makes limiting overshoot more difficult.”
Impacts Beyond The Pacific
Fa’amau also cautioned that the consequences of overshooting 1.5°C would extend well beyond island nations.
“The impacts won’t only be felt in the Pacific, it will be felt by the agriculture industry, coastal cities and vulnerable communities in Australia and beyond,” she explained.
“At the same time, finance for adaptation has never been more crucial. We aren’t yet aware of the multiplying, non-linear effects that a world beyond 1.5°C brings, but we do know that Pacific people will be on the frontlines of these effects and deserve to be prepared.”
Calls For Immediate Fossil Fuel Phase-Out
UNEP has warned that vulnerable communities are already facing the consequences of rising global temperatures and that adaptation and mitigation need to happen in tandem.
350.org maintains that the overshoot pathway carries real-world harm that goes beyond modelling projections. The organisation is calling for an immediate phase-out of fossil fuels, accessible and adequate climate finance from nations historically responsible for emissions and investment in renewable energy solutions that are adaptive and equitable.
Last Updated on September 2, 2026 by Nick Ross
