Deakin University Study Finds Time-Matched Solar Trading Shifts Household Demand By 18 Per Cent

An Australian randomised controlled study of peer-to-peer solar trading has found that linking electricity prices to actual rooftop solar generation shifted household demand by up to 18 per cent into periods when solar panels were producing power.

The Deakin University study, known as the Virtual Energy Network (VEN), is being described as Australia’s first causal evaluation of peer-to-peer electricity trading. It used a phase-in randomised controlled trial methodology to establish cause and effect.

The research found that time-matched energy pricing reduced electricity costs for buyers, increased returns for participating solar owners and improved perceptions of fairness across the electricity market – all without requiring retailers to provide electricity at zero cost.

The findings arrive as the Solar Sharer Offer (SSO) scheme takes effect. From 1 July, participating retailers are required to offer electricity at zero cents during a designated three-hour daytime window, including the network component, regardless of whether solar rooftops and farms are actually generating at the time.

An alternative to zero-price mandates

The study suggests that matching consumers to electricity generated from actual solar production through time-based pricing can deliver many of the same affordability and accessibility objectives as the Solar Sharer scheme, while preserving market signals that reflect real grid conditions.

Under the zero-price model, retailers bear the risk that cloudy days mean their wholesale costs are not covered. They are also required to absorb network charges that are not zero during the designated hours.

The VEN study found that consumers responded to price signals linked to actual renewable generation by naturally shifting their electricity consumption into solar-rich periods – without mandates or artificial pricing mechanisms.

Steve Hoy, Chief Executive Officer and Founder of Enosi, argued that the research demonstrates Australia’s energy transition does not require a choice between supporting consumers and maintaining commercially viable retailers.

“This shows we can’t forget the energy retailer. Customers and retailers will be better off when consumption is matched to generation,” Hoy explained. “This is the first time we’ve had rigorous causal evidence. It shows that consumers respond exactly as the energy transition needs them to if lower prices reflect when renewable energy is actually available.”

How the study worked

The research was conducted across Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, involving 266 participants across 296 sites. Participants operated through retailer Energy Locals using Enosi’s Powertracer platform.

The study was led by Deakin Business School and funded by Energy Consumers Australia with support from ReThink Sustainability, WinZero and Enosi Australia.

Between 8am and 4pm, participants using peer-to-peer matching sourced almost all of their imported electricity from shared solar generation. Around one-third of participants owned no rooftop solar, demonstrating that the benefits of distributed renewable generation can extend to renters, apartment residents and households unable to install panels.

The study also demonstrated that orchestrated demand shift is achievable without needing to take control of consumer energy resources – a point relevant to the ongoing debate around virtual power plant adoption.

Implications for retailers

For retailers dealing with record rooftop solar penetration, increasingly frequent negative wholesale prices and the challenge of orchestrating flexible demand, the findings point towards a market model that aligns customer behaviour with the physical operation of the electricity system rather than predetermined clock times.

Hoy described the current environment as one where energy retailers have been caught between competing pressures as they try to navigate a changing energy landscape.

“The lesson isn’t simply that people like cheaper electricity,” he noted. “It’s that when electricity is matched to real renewable generation, consumers shift demand, solar owners are rewarded more fairly, and retailers don’t have to underwrite costs outside their control.”

“Australia is entering a new era of distributed energy. Solar Sharer is on the right track but a better approach is to reward renewable consumption when it actually occurs, rather than relying on blunt pricing mechanisms that disconnect prices from the reality of the grid.”

Technology already operating at scale

The Powertracer technology underpinning the Australian study is already operating commercially overseas. Italian energy company Plenitude’s “Adopt a Panel” program, which uses the same interval-level energy matching platform, has attracted over 110,000 customers in twelve months.

That program enables customers in apartments to save on electricity costs when matched to solar energy from three solar farms. For Plenitude, the platform has delivered performance at scale.

The Deakin VEN study findings are expected to contribute to ongoing discussions around consumer energy resources, peer-to-peer energy trading, flexible retail products, solar access for apartment residents, virtual power plants and future National Electricity Market reforms.

The full report is available through Deakin University.

Last Updated on July 6, 2026 by Nick Ross