China’s Data Centre Power Consumption Forecast To Quadruple By 2030 As AI Workloads Surge

China’s data centres are expected to quadruple their electricity consumption to 774 TWh by 2030, driven by rapid growth in AI workloads, according to a new report from energy research firm, Wood Mackenzie.

The report, titled “Rewiring China’s grid for the AI era”, forecasts that data centres could account for 17 per cent of China’s total electricity consumption by 2060, up from around 2 per cent currently. The data centre share of national power consumption is expected to triple to 6 per cent by 2030.

Research Analyst for Asia Pacific Power and Renewables Research at Wood Mackenzie, Wanting Zhao, noted that data centres are becoming an increasingly significant part of the country’s energy system.

“As AI drives sustained growth in computing demand, access to reliable, cost-competitive and lower-carbon electricity will play a growing role in determining where and how new data-centre capacity is developed,” Zhao explained.

AI Training And Inference Driving Demand

China’s data centre expansion is being shaped by two reinforcing forces: rapid growth in AI workloads and national policy directives.

AI training is driving more energy-intensive infrastructure, while the expansion of inference workloads is adding a growing base of sustained electricity demand. Together, these trends are expected to keep data centre power consumption growing even as China’s broader electricity demand growth moderates.

On the policy front, the government is promoting what it describes as “compute-power synergy” alongside driving capacity expansion through strategic national targets. China’s 15th Five-Year Plan calls for the coordinated development of computing infrastructure and green electricity. Energy policies are pushing direct green power supply and the adoption of more flexible computing loads.

A Shift From “Power Follows Compute” To “Compute Follows Power”

Historically, data centres have clustered around major cities and technology hubs to access customers, skilled labour, network infrastructure and low-latency connectivity. China’s AI expansion is now adding another consideration: the availability of abundant, reliable and low-carbon electricity.

This is accelerating a shift towards what Wood Mackenzie describes as a “compute follows power” model, particularly for workloads that can tolerate higher latency. Renewable-rich regions in western China offer land and growing renewable generation capacity, creating opportunities to locate power-intensive AI training, batch processing and data storage workloads closer to electricity sources.

Eastern demand centres are expected to retain a role for latency-sensitive applications such as AI inference and financial services. The result is an emerging division of labour between eastern computing demand centres and western power-rich computing hubs.

Wood Mackenzie expects eight national hubs to remain the dominant centres of China’s computing capacity through 2060, although grid constraints and continued growth in renewable generation are likely to support gradual expansion in renewable-rich locations outside those designated hubs.

Data Centres As Flexible Grid Resources

New power architectures, battery storage and intelligent workload scheduling could transform data centres into demand-side flexibility providers, according to the report.

For workloads that do not require immediate processing, computing demand can be shifted towards periods of abundant renewable generation or lower electricity prices, while latency-sensitive workloads remain closer to major demand centres.

This flexibility could allow data centres to move beyond their traditional role as passive base loads and become a more active component of China’s evolving power system. As renewable generation expands, data centres can act as demand sinks to absorb curtailed renewables in oversupplied regions.

Wood Mackenzie expects data centre demand for green electricity to rise substantially through 2060, while data centre carbon emissions are forecast to peak by 2035 as renewable power penetration increases.

Commercial And Institutional Hurdles Remain

Zhao warned that significant challenges remain beyond physical grid planning.

“To truly unlock compute-power synergy, the industry must address data security and SLA concerns during cross-regional migration, stimulate the willingness of operators and tenants to actively participate, and implement targeted mechanisms to alleviate the heavy initial capex burden,” she concluded.

“The direction of travel is clear: computing is beginning to follow power, but our commercial, security and institutional architectures must urgently evolve to make this commercially viable.”

More information on Wood Mackenzie’s data centre analysis is available at woodmac.com.

Last Updated on September 5, 2026 by Nick Ross